When can Verstappen really become F1 world champion in 2022?

When can Verstappen really become F1 world champion in 2022?

Lars Lifting

Max Verstappen has ten wins in 2022 after fifteen races and is currently the driver he tops every weekend. At this rate, the Dutchman will soon become the world champion, but the question is how fast can this be and at what circuit? We describe a few, but certainly not all, scenarios below in a simple fashion. This is to keep it clear.

Verstappen is 109 points ahead of Charles Leclerc and his colleague Sergio Perez. Monegasque and the Mexican are seen as the Dutchman’s biggest contenders in 2022 over the course of the season, but they are clearly losing out for the time being. A great miracle should happen if Verstappen does not become world champion in 2022. But since when is this actually possible?

Monza and Singapore

At Monza, the next race of the season, there is no way by any means for Verstappen to become world champion. Even if Verstappen wins the race, gets the fastest lap and Leclerc and Perez either withdraw or finish the race outside the top 10, it’s not possible. The Singapore Grand Prix (October 2) is the first moment Verstappen can become world champion. Verstappen should then win the Italian and Singapore GPs (and score the fastest lap). In addition, Perez and Leclerc should not score during these two races. This doesn’t sound like the most realistic scenario per se, but in theory it could be.

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The chance of Verstappen becoming world champion increases during the Japanese or US Grand Prix, but until then, there is still a lot to do for the Dutchman. If Verstappen wins races in Italy, Singapore and Japan and finishes ahead of Perez and Leclerc, then Verstappen will already be world champion in Japan (October 9). However, this is not necessarily necessary. If Verstappen wins twice and takes second place once in the next three races, he will also be world champion at Suzuka. If he finished second twice in the next three races, he would have to push the party for another race.

United States and Mexico

Realistically speaking, Verstappen would become world champion at the US Grand Prix (October 23) or the Mexican Grand Prix (October 30). If Perez and Leclerc want to prevent that, they will in fact have to finish every race against Verstappen from next weekend and Verstappen must finish outside the top 10 multiple times. Given the current form of the Dutchman, this seems unrealistic. In any case, there is a good chance that the Grand Prix of Brazil (November 13) and Abu Dhabi (November 20) have already been led with the world champion crowned.

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