This weekend, in the stylish and busy Bayerischer Hof, all eyes will be on Mark Rutte. He is the most likely candidate to succeed Jens Stoltenberg as Secretary General of NATO. Outgoing Foreign Minister Hanke Bruins-Sloet and Defense Minister Kaisa Ollongren noted Rutte's candidacy as serious at every European summit they visited. There are always a few colleagues who wonder how Rutte's chances are going and whether the formation of the Dutch government will not derail things.
At the Munich Security Conference this weekend, Rutte will participate in discussions on future security challenges. He is there officially as Prime Minister of the Netherlands, but it is impossible to separate this kind of performance from his potential candidacy for NATO Secretary General. So the undeniable question arises: Is Rutte there on behalf of the Netherlands or also (to some extent) on his behalf? How do we separate these two interests? To the outside world, it is a mysterious event. Because the conference in Munich is closed.
Blue book
For Ruti himself, it's all about mobility. Normally, ministers can find guidance on issues affecting their positions in the Blue Book, a handbook for ministers. But that offers no comfort in this case, says Ruel Baker, a former chief civil servant. “This is the class for which there are no rules in the Blue Book. If you create it, reality will overtake it again.”
Baker points to the ambiguous decision-making mechanism that led to the appointment of a new NATO Secretary General. “There is not even any decision-making. You see that more in NATO, where everything happens in secret. This choice for the Secretary-General simply arises at a certain point.”
At the VVD party conference in January, Rutte said when asked: “This should not be a problem in my current job. Stoltenberg will not leave until October. Until then, I can continue doing what I am doing now.” But there were whispers within The Liberal Party has been mulling for some time that Rutte will resign as prime minister once he becomes NATO head.
Integrity Professor Rob van Ibergen: “In the current state of the country, with a long formation ahead of us, it is uncomfortable for the Prime Minister to say: ‘I have a new job, see you soon!’ Before you run for such a position, you need to think about how to fill it. VVD leader Jeselgos is likely to take over.
Hostage by formation
This cabinet lineup returns to square one this week after eighty days. An intermediate stage will be introduced under the leadership of Detective Kim Potters. It will take another month before it can be reached at home. The risk of forming a government for a very long period is great. “Rutte cannot allow himself to be held hostage by a number of parties that cannot reach an agreement,” says Rob De Wieck, a professor of international relations.
The NATO summit is scheduled to be held in Washington in the second week of July, when the new Secretary-General should be in place. “NATO now has to move forward, and I'm not bothered by that at all,” says De Wieck. “It is up to the Americans to speed things up.” It should be clear at the beginning of April who will succeed Stoltenberg.
“Two qualities in one person,” Van Ibergen says of the NATO prime minister. “It would be more correct to separate them. It would make sense for him to leave the lobbying to the foreign minister. In many other jobs, you could say someone else is doing the lobbying.” .
Chinese wall
Rutte himself is not actively lobbying to become NATO Secretary General. But he is available to government leaders who want to talk to him. To prevent confusion between the two matters, senior officials claim that there is a “Chinese wall” between the applicant's view and the prime minister's view.
“The question is whether it's possible, like the Great Wall of China,” says Becker, who also offers advice to Rutte. “If I were him, I wouldn't be making any trips for this either. You could do it using video communications, no one would know about it. This is adults' work. Speaking openly about your request puts things on the brink.”
Becker looks on with amazement at the public debate in the Netherlands about Rutte as a candidate for the job. There is no other country where the discussion takes place this way. All these professors of integrity want to arrange things in such a way that the Netherlands is marginalized. Then we will be the best in our class, but we will never get that position again.
