The team around plaintiff Alvin Bragg appears to be in a strong position. No one seems to assume that Trump will be fully vindicated here. This would also require a consensus among the jury members, and this possibility seems very slim. Especially in Manhattan, where Trump received just over 12% of the vote in 2020.
a unanimous A guilty verdict, that seems less certain. Prosecutors must have removed all reasonable doubt. The most important witness in this entire trial was Michael Cohen, a man known as a serial liar and aggressive bully. Additionally, he was previously convicted of lying under oath and has already served prison time.
When Trump's lawyer questioned Cohen during the trial, he did not come out well. His reputation as a mean liar was confirmed. Moreover, it turns out he has reasons to retaliate against his former employer, because of a lost bonus, a lost job in the White House, and because Trump dropped him when Cohen got into trouble with the law.
Cohen is the key witness in this trial. There is no evidence to support much of what he said. It's his word against the defense. The key question is: Will a jury be able to separate Cohen's reputation and past lies from the story he told?
