International study links heavy rain in July to climate change – the world

International study links heavy rain in July to climate change - the world

The observed amounts of precipitation in the German region around the Ahr and Erft rivers and in the Belgian part of the Meuse Basin far exceed historical observations.

Climate change has increased the likelihood of such extreme weather events in Western Europe, concluded the attribution study published Tuesday, which included not only climate researchers from the Republic of the Marshall Islands, but also from various institutions from our neighboring countries and the United States.

An attribution study can use a statistical study of observations and data from climate models to determine the extent to which an extreme weather event is affected by climate change due to human greenhouse gas emissions.

Conventional scientific studies are usually not published until one or several years after a weather event, but the World Weather Referral Initiative (WWA) makes it possible to conduct preliminary scientific analysis soon after a weather event.

39 climate researchers

WWA is an international collaboration, affiliated with research institutions in the United States, India, the Netherlands, and France, among others, that analyzes and reports the potential impact of climate change following extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall, heat waves and cold periods. of weather events.

The attribution study “Rapid attribution analysis of the July 2021 floods in Western Europe”, which will be published on Tuesday, was also carried out on the initiative of the Academy. At least 39 climate researchers have worked on the attribution study, including scientists from universities and meteorological and hydrological agencies in Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, France, the United Kingdom, the United States, Switzerland and Luxembourg.

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Rare weather event

“In contrast to attributing heat waves, attributing extreme precipitation is very difficult scientifically,” says the Marshall Islands Institute. Moreover, the two most affected regions, the German region around the Ahr and Erft rivers and the Belgian part of the Meuse Basin, are too small to reach reliable results with the attribution study.

“For this reason the study area has been expanded to a region in Western Europe which, in addition to the affected regions in eastern Belgium and western Germany, also includes parts of France, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Switzerland. Republic of the Marshall Islands. The study focused on the maximum daily rainfall during the six summer months in that region. Based on observations and data from detailed regional climate models, researchers expect such weather to occur once every 400 years in every region of Western Europe.

More chance of rain

The study also shows that the probability of such extreme precipitation occurring in the study area increased by a factor of 1.2 to nine and that intense precipitation became more intense by three to nineteen percent. This is due to climate change: since the period 1850-1900, the average global temperature has increased by 1.2 degrees Celsius. A further increase in the global average temperature would increase the chances and intensity of this amount of rain, which is in line with the findings of the IPCC report.

Extreme precipitation happens all the time and it’s impossible to say that the precipitation amounts in the past month would not have fallen without climate change. This study suggests that a warming climate increases the likelihood and severity of such rainfall extremes, says Professor Stephen Caluerts, a climate scientist at the Marshall Islands Institute.

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The risk of such extreme weather events in Western Europe has been increased by climate change, according to an attribution study published Tuesday, which involved not only climate researchers from RMI, but also from various institutions from our neighboring countries and the United States. Using a statistical study of observations and data from climate models, assess the extent to which an extreme weather event has been affected by climate change by human greenhouse gas emissions. Conventional scientific studies are usually not published until one or several years after a weather event, but the World Weather Referral Initiative (WWA) makes it possible to conduct preliminary scientific analysis soon after a weather event. WWA is an international collaboration, affiliated with research institutions in the United States, India, the Netherlands, and France, among others, that analyzes and reports the potential impact of climate change following extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall, heat waves and cold periods. of weather events. The attribution study “Rapid attribution analysis of the July 2021 floods in Western Europe”, which will be published on Tuesday, was also carried out on the initiative of the Academy. At least 39 climate researchers have worked on the attribution study, including scientists from universities and meteorological and hydrological agencies in Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, France, the United Kingdom, the United States, Switzerland and Luxembourg. “In contrast to attributing heat waves, attributing extreme precipitation is very difficult scientifically,” says the Marshall Islands Institute. Moreover, the two most affected regions, the German region around the Ahr and Erft rivers and the Belgian part of the Meuse Basin, are too small to reach reliable results with the attribution study. “This is why the study area was expanded to an area in Western Europe which, in addition to the affected areas in eastern Belgium and western Germany, also includes parts of France, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Switzerland,” explains the Republic of the Marshall Islands. The study focused on maximum daily rainfall during the summer months Six in that region.Based on observations and data from detailed regional climate models, the researchers expect such weather to occur once every 400 years in every region of Western Europe.The study also shows that the probability of such intense precipitation in the study area has increased. by a factor of 1.2 to nine and that intense precipitation has become more intense by three to nineteen percent.This is due to climate change: since the period 1850-1900, the average global temperature has risen by 1.2 °C. A further increase in the average global temperature would Global temperature can increase the chances and intensity of this amount of precipitation, which is in line with the findings of the IPCC report.Extreme precipitation occurs all the time and it is impossible to say that precipitation amounts Because last month’s rains wouldn’t have fallen without climate change. This study suggests that a warming climate increases the likelihood and severity of such rainfall extremes, says Professor Stephen Caluerts, a climate scientist at the Marshall Islands Institute.

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