“In 24 hours, wind speed doubled to 270 km/h”: Typhoon Lee quickly became one of the strongest typhoons on record | Science and the planet

On September 5, the National Hurricane Center named a tropical storm in the Atlantic Ocean “Lee.” This officially makes it the twelfth storm of the June-November Atlantic hurricane season. On September 6, the tropical cyclone gained enough strength to be named a hurricane. Lee then quickly condensed into the warm ocean water. In just one day, the hurricane developed into a Category 5 hurricane, the highest category on the Saffir-Simpson scale. This makes it one of the fastest hurricanes in history.

The Saffir-Simpson Scale classifies tropical cyclones into five categories based on maximum wind speeds, storm surge heights, and damage potential. Category 1 hurricanes have wind speeds of 119 to 153 km/h, while Category 5 hurricanes have wind speeds of 252 km/h or higher. Less than 1% of all tropical cyclones reach Category 5. The last Category 5 hurricane was Ian in 2022.

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Hurricane Lee currently has sustained winds of 170 mph. Further strengthening seems likely because Lee is in an environment with low shear and very warm water of around 30°C. The hurricane is expected to increase in strength, with wind speeds reaching 290 km/h (or more).

Therefore, the tropical cyclone may have a chance to claim the title of the strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic Ocean. One usually looks at wind speed or central pressure (the lower the pressure, the stronger the hurricane). In terms of wind speed, Hurricane Allen has been advancing since 1980 at 310 km/h. If we look at the central pressure, Hurricane Wilma from 2005 holds the lead with 882 mbar (Wilma reached “only” 298 km/h in terms of wind speed). Currently mine is 926 mbar. It remains to be seen where exactly Hurricane Lee will end up. It is certain that the hurricane will remain a Category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next five days.

Currently, Lee is the farthest southeastern hurricane ever observed as a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean since records began 172 years ago. A steady west-northwest track is expected north of the Northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Wednesday. Lee won’t make landfall (for now), but waves, rain and winds from the storm could certainly impact surrounding areas.

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Computer models indicate that Lee will likely head north next week. It is especially important when this will happen because this determines how close a dangerous hurricane will come to the US coast. The speed of Lee’s deflection depends on how quickly the high-pressure area north of the hurricane is weakening. If the high pressure area persists, the hurricane could approach the East Coast of the United States.

In the 1970s and 1980s, major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) averaged about 30 to 33% of all Atlantic hurricanes. This has increased to an average of 40 to 50% annually in the first decade of the twenty-first century. This means that there were on average 1.6 major hurricanes per year in the 1970s and 1980s, and that this has risen to 3 today to 4 per year.

Climate change has been suggested as a cause of stronger hurricanes. The impact of climate change on the frequency of tropical storms is still unclear, but rising sea surface temperatures warm the air above and provide more energy to power hurricanes.

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