When will artificial intelligence become equal to human intelligence? When will machines replace humans? An expert in America is now making a prediction.
This is perhaps the most popular science fiction theme of all time: robots take over, people lose control of the machine, and algorithms replace human thinking.
For a long time, these stories were actually nothing more than material for books, films and series. However, with the rapid development of artificial intelligence, fantasy can become reality. If you believe the assessment of artificial intelligence researcher Ben Goertzel, this moment is closer than expected:
Goertzel said in an interview with the American magazine “Decrypt” that within “three to eight years”, that is, by 2031 at the latest, the development of artificial intelligence will likely be so advanced that it can escape human control. This means that the “singularity” state will be reached much sooner than other researchers previously assumed.
Singularity much earlier than expected?
Futurists understand that the Singularity is a point in time when artificial intelligence will surpass human intelligence. As a result, it is conceivable that AI will constantly invent new things and improve itself, without humans being able to predict what will happen next. American Raymond Kurzweil coined the term in a book from 2005. At the time, he estimated that the singularity would occur in the year 2045.
According to Goertzel, himself president of AI and blockchain developer SingularityNET, the early timing of the singularity, which he predicted, is due to the success of AI language models like Chat-GPT. “These systems have dramatically increased the world’s enthusiasm for AGI, so that they have more resources, money and manpower — and the smartest young people want to jump in and work on AGI.”
Elon Musk is leading the development
AI researchers like Goertzel understand that artificial general intelligence (AGI) is a type of superintelligence that could lead to the Singularity. AGI is artificial intelligence on par with humans and will be the last great human invention before AI itself takes over developing new algorithms because it can develop itself more quickly.
One of the biggest drivers of AGI is Tesla founder and Twitter owner Elon Musk. This spring, Musk founded the startup xAI, dedicated to developing artificial general intelligence (AGI). According to Musk, artificial general intelligence should become a reality around 2029, two years before the final time point of the singularity that Goertzel has now predicted.
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