Air New Zealand is projecting one of the busiest holiday seasons in its history, with millions of passengers expected to travel across its domestic and international networks during Christmas 2025. The forecast underscores continued strength in leisure travel demand and growing consumer confidence as the Southern Hemisphere summer peak approaches.
The national carrier said it expects approximately 1.6 million passengers to fly domestically and a further 1.1 million to travel on international routes during the festive period. If realized, those volumes would mark a significant concentration of travel over a short timeframe, placing sustained pressure on airport infrastructure and airline operations across New Zealand.
The surge is expected to be most pronounced at the country’s largest aviation hubs, including Auckland Airport (AKL), Queenstown Airport (ZQN), and Wellington Airport (WLG). According to the airline, passenger flows will build steadily through mid-December before peaking in the days leading up to Christmas. The data reflects robust bookings for both internal leisure trips and overseas travel, particularly to Australia and Pacific island destinations.
Domestic Network Led by South Island Demand
Within New Zealand, Air New Zealand expects the South Island to once again dominate holiday travel demand. Queenstown remains the standout destination, with approximately 260,000 passengers forecast to arrive and depart during the holiday period, reinforcing its position as the country’s leading tourism hub.
Nelson is projected to handle around 150,000 travellers, while Dunedin is expected to see roughly 110,000 passengers over the same timeframe. Other regional leisure markets are also expected to record elevated volumes as families and holidaymakers disperse across the country for summer breaks.
Friday, December 19, is forecast to be the busiest day on the domestic network, with up to 32,000 passengers flying nationwide. Elevated volumes are also expected on December 21, 22, and 23, each with approximately 31,000 travellers taking domestic flights. These figures reflect a heavy concentration of travel immediately before Christmas, a pattern that has become increasingly pronounced in recent years.
International Travel Driven by Australia and the Pacific
International demand is also showing strong momentum, with Air New Zealand forecasting around 1.1 million passengers travelling to and from the country over the holiday period. Short-haul routes across the Tasman Sea are expected to account for a substantial share of that traffic, supported by leisure travel and visits to friends and relatives.
Sydney Airport (SYD) is projected to lead international demand with about 195,000 passengers, followed closely by Melbourne Airport (MEL) with approximately 185,000 travellers. Brisbane Airport (BNE) is also expected to remain busy, serving an estimated 120,000 customers during the peak season.
Beyond Australia, Pacific island destinations continue to attract strong interest. The airline estimates around 170,000 passengers will travel to sun-focused routes such as Fiji and Tahiti, reflecting sustained demand for short-haul resort travel during the New Zealand summer.
Long-haul services are also expected to remain resilient. Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) is forecast to handle around 56,000 passengers travelling to and from New Zealand, highlighting ongoing demand for North American connections despite longer flight times and higher costs.
Peak Days and Passenger Guidance
Air New Zealand identified Saturday, December 20, and Saturday, January 3, as the busiest days for international travel. On each of those dates, up to 20,000 passengers are expected to pass through international terminals, pushing facilities close to peak capacity.
To help manage congestion, the airline has advised passengers to prepare well in advance. Recommendations include using online check-in where available, arriving early at airports, and allowing extra time for families, oversized baggage, or passengers requiring special assistance.
Travellers have also been reminded to review aviation safety and baggage restrictions before packing gifts. Certain items may be prohibited in carry-on or checked luggage, making pre-travel checks especially important during the holiday rush.
Outlook
Air New Zealand’s latest outlook points to a strong and sustained rebound in holiday flying across both domestic and international markets. With clearly defined peak travel days and heavy demand for leisure destinations, busy terminals are expected throughout late December and early January. For passengers, careful planning and flexibility are likely to be essential during one of the airline’s most active travel periods of the year.
