Stock struggle
News Milk
Today at 10:00 am -Alex Gourvillier
The latest milk supply figures for New Zealand published by DCANZ show clear growth for February this year. Supported by the additional leap day, production in February gets an additional boost. It also appears that Australian milk supplies have increased compared to last year.
New Zealand's milk supply in February was 1.91 million tonnes. Compared to February of last year, there was a significantly large increase of 5.5%. This difference was smaller between February 2022 and 2023, when the increase was 2.3%. An extra day, due to a leap year, gives a distorted picture of the increase. Without this extra day, based on average February production, February milk stocks would reach 1.85 million tons. This still represents an increase of more than 1.87% compared to February of last year. However, it is a weaker increase than the previous year's increase.
Without the extra leap day, based on average daily production in February, total milk production for January and February 2024 together amounts to 4.172 million tons. This compares to 4.166 million tons in the same period of the previous year.
The increased milk production can partly be attributed to the weather in New Zealand. February was very dry and unseasonably sunny, but with relatively normal temperatures. Soil moisture remained largely the same as it was a month ago. One analyst points out that the weather is drier than usual everywhere except the Waikato and Southland. Because of these conditions, grass growth is abundant in these two regions where milk production is relatively high.
In 2023, milk supplies were also slightly higher than in 2022, at 21.245 million tons, and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) had previously forecast a decline to 21.2 million tons for that year. This is due to El Niño weather patterns, low milk prices and continued cost inflation among dairy farmers.
Australian milk supplies are off to a good start in the first months
Australian milk supplies reached 601.8 million liters in February, according to Dairy Australia. Without the additional leap day based on average daily production, the total production is 581.05 million litres. This is still more than the 553.5 million liters in February 2023. Without the extra leap day, based on average daily production in February, total milk production in January and February 2024 together comes to 1,308.5 million litres. In the same period in 2023, this figure reached 1,244.9 million litres.
This means Australian milk production will start higher this year. This is in line with the USDA's previously forecast 1% increase to 8.5 million tonnes of milk in 2024. In 2023, Australian milk production reached 8.13 million litres.
