The Netherlands received smaller gains from exports to Germany last year. Trade between the Netherlands and Germany fell by more than 5.5 percent, partly due to higher energy prices and difficulties in the chemicals sector. This is the pain that we will also feel in the Netherlands, believes German correspondent Dirk Marseille.
The Netherlands will certainly feel the pain of its eastern neighbors
This is largely due to the decline in trade between Germany and China. Last year it fell by fifteen percent, and if it falls further, the outlook for the Netherlands will be bleak. “The Netherlands provides Germany a lot,” Marseille says. “From car parts to machine chips – they all come from the Netherlands and are produced in an intelligent way. That's why they are in great demand in Germany.
“The Netherlands supplies Germany a lot.”
But Marseille stresses that because it is primarily about supplies — not the finished products that customers end up buying — it will become tangible.
Structural risk
Marseille believes that describing the economic situation as a “recession” does not do justice to Germany. As far as he is concerned, the German economy is in “structural danger.” “From a cyclical perspective, there is something added every year and something lost every year, so it goes beyond that discussion. The future revenue model in Germany has to be looked at.
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However, that is easier said than done. German politics is deeply divided on this issue. For example, there is a disagreement between German Minister of Economic Affairs Robert Habeck and his colleague Finance Minister Christian Lindner over the so-called Blank black. “They both want something different.” Habeck wants to see more investments to make the German economy more sustainable. But at the same time it costs a lot of money, without any guarantees. You may be able to solve the carbon dioxide problem, but will it also create the new products the world has been waiting for? This is the dilemma that Germany is currently experiencing.
Policy
Marseille believes that Germany's economic prospects are causing political unrest. According to him, this is an important point in discussions about the rise of the extreme and radical right in Germany. “When the economy slows down, people become insecure and the government wants to radiate stability,” he says. “But if you look closely at the numbers and how things will play out in the coming years, it is noticeable that Germany will build new gas plants again to fill the transition gap.”
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Current wind and solar power will not be stable enough to fill this gap. “Although the Netherlands has said it no longer wants to touch Groningen gas, Germany will invest in gas facilities because of the unstable economic situation. They need messages to German voters about why this government is doing so well. You see panicked football, and when things go wrong in… “Germany, the Netherlands also notices this immediately.”
