The vast majority of participants (more than three-quarters) answered “0.” About one in ten entered No. 1 and a small group (nearly 6 percent) polled No. 5. Almost no one answered that they would likely or most likely vote for Wilders’ party.
“People might hear in the hairdresser or in the football cafeteria that the Freedom Party is popular among Muslims,” says Van Oosten. “That is of course eye-catching, so that image will stick.” “But when I heard that I thought: Damn! I have data here! There is no basis for this claim at all.”
Van Oosten’s findings are consistent with the 2021 National Voter Survey conducted after the House elections.
Two years ago, Dutch people with a Moroccan background voted mainly for DENK (more than 40 percent). Many Dutch people with a Turkish background did so, although their popularity declined slightly compared to the 2017 elections. PvdA, SP and D66 were also popular parties among these groups. PVV is barely reflected in these statistics.
The Freedom Party won the election comfortably with 37 seats. The party’s statement includes a proposal to ban mosques, Qur’ans, and Islamic schools. Reports that many Dutch Muslims were going to vote for the Freedom Party were therefore surprising.
