Trump’s lead in polling in Iowa worries Democrats – but Biden still tops nationally | US News

While Joe Biden easily beats Donald Trump in the national opinion polls, two days after Election Day, a new poll conducted in Iowa on Saturday night showed the president had a seven-point lead.

With Trump enjoying the same lead in Iowa over Hillary Clinton days before he won the 2016 election with a few wins in major Midwestern states, the news could alarm Democrats who are anxiously awaiting Tuesday’s decision.

In a poll conducted by Selzer & Co for the Des Moines and Mediacom record between October 26-29, Trump led 48% to 41% for Biden. In September, the same poll showed the two men tied 47%.

Four years ago, Trump won Iowa by 9.4 points. Selzer’s poll included 814 potential voters and had a margin of error of 3.4%. The pollsters, J Ann Selzer, said the men and political independents continue to support Trump.

“The president maintains demographic combinations he won in Iowa four years ago, and that would give someone a certain level of comfort in his stature,” Selzer told the record. “There is a consistent story in 2020 of what happened in 2016.”

“None of the candidates have reached 50%,” Selzer added. “There is still some play here.” But it also said the data indicated that 94% of “potential voters” decided which method to vote, including 98% of Biden supporters and 95% of Trump supporters, and only 4% of potential voters said they were still able to persuade.

Many Iowa voters have already cast their ballots. As in other states, early voting and postage have increased dramatically. The registry stated that more than half of potential voters said they had already cast their ballots. Early voting is generally held in Biden’s favor, with Trump counting on increased support on Election Day itself.

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Among pollsters, reactions to the Iowa survey have been mixed. Nate Silver, of FiveThirtyEight.com, wrote that the poll did not herald a heavy swing toward Trump across the board.

“One thing to consider if you see a late ballot movement in a country is whether the movement matches the basics,” Wrote. “In Iowa, for example, our model believed that Trump“ should ”be a 3-point lead based on polls in similar states, the standard swing, etc. He’s too red.

“So the Selzer poll, which brought our average there from Biden +0.1 to Trump +1.8, roughly a big shift as you’ll see, made the race more in line with the basics there. The same would be true, for example, if Biden got two polls in Texas. Tomorrow “.

Nate Cohen, from The New York Times Indicated The Selzer poll was “the best polling result for the president in a very long time – perhaps in the election cycle.

“It’s also worth noting that Selzer might be wrong, and it has been before. No pollster has ever been placed on a higher pedestal, but ultimately everyone in that business experiences a sampling error etc. if you expect perfection. … you will not get it.

“And this poll, conducted by Selzer Iowa, has stalled on its own, not just in Iowa but in terms of the general story. Every national poll showed Biden is ahead of Clinton among white voters.” [and] White working class voters. He excelled at the northern white level. “

Both candidates are still vying for Iowa. Biden organized a rally in Des Moines on Friday and Trump, who was in the state in October, was due to host a rally in Dubuque on Sunday.

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Nationwide, Biden was ahead of Trump, 51%, versus 41% in the most recent Reuters / Ipsos poll. New opinion polls on Sunday also lifted Biden nationally and in major battle states, although races have been tougher in Pennsylvania and Florida, two of the wildest prizes.

NBC News showed Biden’s national lead at 10%, down from 11% two weeks ago. And CBS News showed that Biden was with early voters and Trump was counting on the election day increase. A New York Times / Siena College poll puts Biden ahead 11 points in Wisconsin, six in Arizona and Pennsylvania and three in Florida – all of which were in Trump’s favor in 2016.

Trump does not seem worried.

“Our numbers look very good everywhere.” chirp Early on Sunday. “Sleepy Joe is already pulling out of some cases. The Radical Left is backing down!”

With two days close to perhaps the most important US election of the modern era, there is ample room for nerves on both sides of the party divide.

On NBC’s Meet the Press, Democratic pollster Geoff Hurwett insisted that the election was “truly a referendum on Donald Trump” and said, “The other thing is that the numbers were really stable in terms of [Biden] It now leads at 10 points. … there was no movement to really suggest Donald Trump was making progress. “

Republican Poll Bill McInturff He said the result would go back to states with “huge numbers of whites, undergraduates who haven’t yet voted.”

He said: “Of the nearly three out of ten people who said they have not voted yet, they are voting for Donald Trump by about 30 points.” “… look at the states with huge numbers of undergraduate whites who haven’t voted yet: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin. And these elections will go down to those countries again.”

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