It might seem premature to be speculating about the 2024 US presidential election so soon after the November voting process, but that is the nature of politics. The big picture always has to be in view; both the Democrats and the Republicans, publicly or otherwise, are already laying the groundwork for 2024 in response to President-Elect Joe Biden’s victory at the polls in 2020.
The Democrats will be planning on Biden’s presidency being the platform for a prolonged stay in the White House, whereas Republican strategists will be considering the best way to return to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. It is not just politicians who have begun to think of 2024; Paddy Power already offers a betting market for the winner of the next US presidential election, with these political odds providing valuable insight into the favorites and the outsiders. Unsurprisingly the most-fancied contenders come from the White House incumbents from 2017-2020 and those that have booked their stay for 2021-2024.
As of November 18, it is Vice-President-Elect Kamala Harris who heads up the market with a price of +500. Harris’ youth may have contributed to her swooping in at a lower price than Biden, with the 46th president of the US available at +700 to secure a second term.
The 45th President Donald Trump boasts odds of +800 to return to the White House, while his vice-president Mike Pence is at +1400. This quartet was always going to be prominent names in the speculation for the 2024 election, but it is interesting to consider the newcomers featured in the betting market for an insight into where momentum may lie over the next four years.
The former governor of South Carolina has long been mooted as a potential Republican candidate for 2024, which is reflected in Haley’s price of +1000 in the betting market. Haley served as ambassador to the United Nations in Trump’s administration, with that wealth of experience prompting The Washington Post in March 2020 to place her atop the rankings of likely first female presidents.
Ocasio-Cortez has become a powerful Democrat voice in American politics, while her posts on Twitter display progressive qualities and humor which should appeal in particular to younger voters. Her price of +1200 in political odds considers account Ocasio-Cortez’s swelling popularity with the caveat of her age. Ocasio-Cortez will only just be old enough to run for president in 2024 (she turns 35-years-old in October 2024), so her time may come four years further down the line.
“Things were bad for me, so they should stay bad for everyone else” is not a good argument against debt cancellation – student, medical, or otherwise. #CancelStudentDebt
— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) November 16, 2020
The Trump name features multiple times in the betting markets for 2024. Donald Trump Jr. is considered a +1400 chance to follow in his father’s footsteps, placing him alongside Mike Pence in the betting, while Ivanka Trump is slightly longer at +1800.
A former White House resident
It is not just recent occupants projected to make a bid to return to the White House in 2024, as First Ladies Michelle Obama and Hillary Clinton are +3300 and +5000 in the running. Obama would have plenty of backing if she does have political aspirations, although Clinton’s defeat to Trump in 2016 may rule her out.
Trump’s win has laid the groundwork for more serious speculation about celebrity candidates who have no experience in politics. Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson (+6600), The Ides of March star George Clooney (+8000), Kim Kardashian (+8000), and Beyonce (+15000) all have their backers. One man with a modicum of political experience is Kanye West, who ran for president in 2020 with limited success. West is +5000 to return in 2024 with better results.
These odds will fluctuate over the coming months and years, with old names becoming ruled out and new names emerging in the race. It seems likely that the 2024 winner will be someone who has been touted for several years. Only time will tell if that person is an experienced politician like Ocasio-Cortez or someone like Clooney who has only ever played politicians on screen.