TORONTO — After more than two years of operation, Neos Airlines has suspended its twice-weekly Boeing 787-9 service between Amritsar (ATQ) and Toronto (YYZ) via Milan (MXP), citing declining passenger loads, reduced profitability, and weakening booking trends. The final flight operated on October 8, 2025, marking the end of a route that once symbolized growing connectivity between India’s Punjab region and Canada.
The Italian leisure carrier attributed the decision to “global geopolitical instability and weakening booking trends,” factors that have also affected broader travel flows between India and Canada. The suspension underscores how softening demand, tighter visa policies, and intensified competition are reshaping this once-booming long-haul market.
A Route Built on Diaspora and Student Traffic
Neos launched the Amritsar–Toronto route in 2023, targeting Punjab’s large diaspora community and the steady flow of students traveling to Canada. But according to the airline, the service struggled to achieve sustainable load factors and relied heavily on low-yield passenger segments.
“The route relied heavily on low-yield passenger segments, particularly students and VFR [Visiting Friends and Relatives] travelers from Punjab,” the company noted in its statement.
Ravreet Singh, a popular aviation blogger and route analyst, said Neos’ withdrawal reflects the shifting realities of the transcontinental market. “The airline’s exit underscores how demand has softened under stricter Canadian visa norms and a slowdown in new travel approvals,” Singh explained.
Capacity Cuts by Major Carriers
Neos’ departure leaves Air India (AI) and Air Canada (AC) as the only airlines offering nonstop flights between India and Canada. However, both carriers are also scaling back operations due to fluctuating yields and capacity optimization efforts.
Air India, which once ran up to 14 flights weekly between Delhi (DEL) and Toronto (YYZ), plans to halve that number to seven flights per week in its Winter 2025–26 schedule. The adjustment follows the retirement of several leased Boeing 777-200LRs and a broader fleet realignment across its long-haul network.
Air Canada is showing similar restraint. During the Winter 2024–25 season, it operated 16 weekly flights to India, including routes from Toronto, Montreal, and Calgary — some via London Heathrow (LHR). The carrier has since trimmed those frequencies, signaling that “yields have tightened across the corridor,” according to industry observers.
Market Maturity and Competitive Pressures
Despite steady passenger volumes driven by diaspora travel, analysts say the India–Canada market is entering a mature phase characterized by lower yields and tougher competition. Singh observed that nonstop flights, while convenient, now face “yield compression due to the availability of competitive one-stop options via Doha, Dubai, Istanbul, and, soon, potentially, Chinese hubs as India–China routes resume.”
For Air India, the focus has shifted from rapid expansion to yield optimization. The airline continues to operate a daily Delhi–Vancouver (YVR) flight alongside its reduced Toronto service, maintaining 14 weekly frequencies to Canada this winter. Executives say these routes remain profitable but are being managed with tighter control over capacity and fleet deployment.
Punjab’s Diminishing Long-Haul Links
The Punjab–Canada market — once seen as fertile ground for direct long-haul service — has lost momentum. Singh noted that “with Neos Airlines’ exit and subdued demand, the likelihood of nonstop Amritsar–Toronto or Amritsar–Vancouver services returning remains slim.”
Most travelers from Punjab now connect via Delhi, where Air India and Air Canada consolidate their North American traffic. Unless visa restrictions ease or student travel rebounds significantly, analysts expect Delhi to remain the primary gateway for Canada-bound passengers.
Outlook: Stability Over Expansion
The broader India–Canada air corridor appears to have reached a point of equilibrium. Airlines are prioritizing profitability and capacity discipline rather than aggressive expansion, a reflection of global market caution amid geopolitical uncertainty and softening economic indicators.
Industry observers expect capacity adjustments to remain modest in the near term as airlines balance fleet availability with evolving demand patterns. As one analyst summarized, “the balance between demand, yield, and fleet strategy defines this transcontinental corridor — one where cautious realism has replaced earlier growth optimism.”
For now, the skies between Amritsar and Toronto will remain quiet, a telling sign of how market realities can ground even once-promising international connections.
