The Orange Lionesses are on their way to the European Championship quarter-finals, but elimination in the group stage is still an option. At 6 pm, the Netherlands-Switzerland and Sweden-Portugal matches will start at the same time. What are the scenarios?
1. The Netherlands wins, Sweden wins
If Orange and Sweden win, the goal difference will be determined. Both countries have seven points. At the moment, the goal difference is more or less equal, +1, with the orange scoring an extra goal, and therefore at the top. If both the Orange Women and Sweden are on the winning side, we’ll definitely be looking at what’s happening in the other area. The group winner escapes France in the quarter-finals and plays a match against less fortunate Belgium, Iceland or Italy. Which country will be clear on Monday.
2. The Netherlands wins and Sweden loses points
Then it’s very simple: in this scenario, the lionesses become the winner of the group and thus avoid France. Then Friday evening (9 pm), the quarter-finals await in Lee. If the Orange team are nonetheless going to finish second in the group, then national coach Mark Parsons’ side will play France on Saturday night (9pm) in Rotherham.
3. Holland draw
In any case, a draw is enough to qualify for the quarter-finals. If Sweden wins, Orange will be in second place. If Sweden draw with Portugal, both Orange and Sweden will continue and the goal difference will be decisive. If Sweden scores a goal-rich draw and Orange does not, they can overtake Orange based on the goals scored. If Sweden loses, the Netherlands is the group winner with a draw. In general, the Netherlands will win the group with the same score as Sweden (or better), if both countries do not lose.
4. Holland loses
Then usually follows the shutdown. Only the defeat of Sweden can prevent this. Switzerland will then move to Orange based on the mutual results, because the position in the group is determined in the event of a tie between one or more countries on the basis of the following criteria, ranked in order of importance:
1. Result from mutual matches.
2. Target teams in mutual matches.
3. The number of goals scored in the matches exchanged.
4. Goal difference in all group matches.
5. The number of goals scored in all group matches.
6. The least number of penalty points for each team (red card = 3 penalty points, yellow card = 1 penalty point, 2 yellows, and therefore red = 3 penalty points);
7. Highest place in the UEFA standings at the time of the draw (October 28, 2021).
In exceptional cases, this can be applied extensively if the Netherlands loses. If the Lionesses lose 1-2 to Switzerland and Portugal wins 2-3 against Sweden, all countries will get the same number of points and Portugal will continue as the group winner based on the goal difference (7-7). The rest of the countries then have 5-5 credits. Then it comes to yellow and red cards, and if that is also equal, Sweden is second in the FIFA World Ranking in the quarter-finals.
But even if the Netherlands and Sweden lose, the goal difference may still be in favor of the orange and we may see the Dutch team again in the quarter-finals. Parsons’ side can avoid this difficult reckoning by taking at least a point against Switzerland, as the group stage is not the final stop anyway.
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