Written by Julia Vey··an average:
from right to left
With less than four months to go until the US election, Joe Biden dropped out of the Democratic presidential race last night. His running mate Kamala Harris now appears to be the most likely candidate to succeed him. And with her, the election is set to be exciting again.
Followers of American politics have already marked August 19 on their agenda: it will become clear during the Democratic Party convention whether Kamala Harris will indeed take Joe Biden's place as presidential candidate.
According to experts, the chances are high. “She has the best qualifications for this role,” says American expert Cox Donders. “As vice president, she is already the leading Democratic candidate after Biden.” Moreover, many prominent politicians immediately expressed their support for Harris.
Officially, Democrats can invite other candidates to run for office and then select them democratically. But no one else will join, believes US expert Frans Verhagen, who has written a book on the history of the US presidency. “If this had happened a year ago, there would have been other people in the race. But now they probably don’t want to shoot so they can still have a chance in the 2028 presidential election.”
To avoid reputational damage, Democrats would be wise not to be too divided. “The last thing the party needs right now is chaos,” Donders says. “Or people thinking the party doesn’t know what it wants.”
rare
It is rare for Biden to drop out. The last time it happened was more than 50 years ago. In 1968, then-President Lyndon Johnson decided to withdraw from the race for another term after his popularity declined.
In all, seven times in American presidential history has a different candidate than expected taken office. Twice before that, it was because the intended candidate withdrew due to low popularity. In the other cases, the party nominated someone else.
These historical moments do not bode well for Democrats. In only one of these seven cases did the party whose presidential candidate was the new candidate win the election, in 1856.
However, candidates have never before withdrawn at such a late stage. “In this respect, we are entering new territory,” says Verhagen. “The campaign will now be much livelier than when these two old men faced each other.”
What do the polls say?
In current polls, Harris is doing slightly better than Biden. She would get about 46 percent of the vote, compared to Biden’s 44 percent.
However, this is less than Trump, who currently has around 48% of the vote, which is already a mixed bag for each poll. According to Verhagen, this does not mean anything yet, because Harris can only now start his campaign. “Polls should be taken with a big bag of salt anyway, but especially at this stage,” he added.
Harris is expected to do particularly well among young people, women and non-whites. “She’s really for everyone who wants something other than an old white guy,” Donders said. “She appeals to people who want to see themselves represented in the White House.”
In this video, reporter Sophie van der Meer explains who Harris scored best with:
These are precisely the voters Democrats desperately need. Democrats have always had a large advantage among black voters, but the percentage of those who plan to vote for Trump has been rising in polls in recent years. Harris may be able to reach these voters better.
However, it will also reject some voters. “There are Americans who are so racist, consciously or unconsciously, that they don’t want to vote for a black person,” Verhagen says. “And certainly not a black woman.”
The United States has never had a female president, and some conservative voters don’t want to vote for a woman on principle. This also played a role when Hillary Clinton ran for president in 2016.
Operating companion
It will also matter who Harris becomes as vice president, or Operating companion, She would choose—whether she would actually be nominated as a presidential candidate. “It would probably be more beneficial for her to run if she chose a conservative-looking candidate who has made his mark in politics,” Donders says. “Maybe a white man. It pains me to say it out loud, but I think she would ultimately hurt her chances if she chose another woman.”
Watch our video on Kamala Harris below:
Several names have already been mentioned, most of them governors in important states. For example, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper have been mentioned. Both are well-known Democrats in the so-called swing statesWhich may contribute to achieving democratic gains in those states.
swing states
as always swing states It makes a difference during elections. Regardless of the candidate, about 46 percent of voters choose Democrats and 46 percent choose Republicans. Moderate Americans in the middle, who are not committed to any party but choose each election the party that best suits their situation, determine who ultimately wins.
That’s why turnout is so important, especially among these voters. The enthusiasm to go to the polls for Trump has been high, and that won’t change. But Harris may be able to get some Democratic voters more excited about casting their ballots than Biden.
“I think the potential loss of racist or sexist voters will be offset by the enthusiasm Harris could generate in some voters,” Verhagen says. “Like suburban women, who might have stayed home if Biden had been the nominee.”
narrow win
And that last-minute change of guard has made the election exciting again. “With Biden, the Democrats had no chance,” Verhagen said. “Now the chance to win is there again.”
According to Verhagen, this is a good opportunity, because Harris could at least be a better candidate than Biden in the debates. “With her experience as a prosecutor and senator, she can attack Trump in a substantive way,” he says. Moreover, she could claim the legacy of Biden, who is seen as a successful president because he has achieved a lot, especially in his first two years.
It will certainly be a close race. The question now is whether Kamala Harris can attract enough undecided voters to her side in the coming weeks to narrowly defeat Trump.
