The Russians lose a thousand men a day, and the summer offensive stops.

Russia’s summer offensive appears to have stalled. Russia is losing about 1,000 troops a day, and the Ukrainians are increasingly successful in halting Russian attacks thanks to renewed Western support. “The momentum has gone out of the offensive, and there is talk of a climax,” says defense expert Peter Vininga of the Hague Institute for Strategic Studies.

Ukraine is increasingly successfully halting the Russian advance. This is due not only to stubborn Ukrainian resistance, but also to long Russian supply lines and the fatigue of the attacking party. “It could be a combination,” says Wijnenga. A climax is not the same as a “turning point,” he adds. “That requires more.”

Support works

According to Weninga, Western arms supplies are clearly having an effect. “The Russians have been killing and wounding a thousand a day for the past two and a half to three months.” Moreover, monthly losses of 30,000 men are difficult to replace. Russian recruitment and training are incapable of replacing losses at that rate. “The Russians can’t do it.”

No ability

According to Weninga, the Russians simply do not have the training capacity to meet the huge need at the front. He says they are working hard on it, but it is not visible. According to Weninga, what is still visible at the front is poorly trained, poorly equipped and poorly armed. “It is nothing more than cannon fodder.”

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Asked if the F-16s that will be introduced this summer will be a game changer, Wijninga said he doesn’t like the term. As for whether the F-16 will make a difference, he said: “It’s not what you can do with it, it’s what you do with it.” That in turn depends on the knowledge and skills of the soldiers leading the operation, or military prowess. “That’s much more decisive than just military capability.”