Study shows climate change is exacerbating African cyclones

Written by Wanjohi Kabukoro | news agency

MOMBASA, Kenya – Heavy rains in Southeast Africa are becoming more intense and cyclones likely due to climate change, according to a new analysis published Monday by an international team of weather scientists.

The multiple tropical storms that hit Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique earlier this year were analyzed by the World Weather Attribution group, which found that the storms were exacerbated by rising global temperatures. In just six weeks between January and March, the region saw a record three tropical cyclones and two tropical storms make landfall. Heavy rains, storms and floods have killed more than 230 people and displaced hundreds of thousands in the area.

Countries remain at risk of devastating weather this year, with hurricane season ending in May.

The team of climate scientists used well-established, peer-reviewed methods, including weather observations and computer simulations, to model scenarios using both pre-industrial and current global temperatures — which are about 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer. The difference between the models determines man-made global warming.

Sarah Keogh, of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and co-author of the study, said they looked at the impact of climate change using 34 prediction models, but data gaps made it difficult to understand the full impact of increased greenhouse gas emissions. he decided.

Dr. said. que. “This will also help improve predictions and impact of extreme weather events.”

In both Madagascar and Malawi, the study was limited by a lack of weather stations with appropriate data. Of the 23 meteorological stations in the affected areas of Mozambique, only four had complete data going back to 1981.

Dr. says. Esiden Pinto is a climate systems analyst at the University of Cape Town.