An overview of this weekend’s main race by AI Master M, who developed Ai Escape, which uses AI machine learning for massive race results on netkeiba, and Masaya Ibuki, a horse racing critic who specializes in analyzing race data. The human ‘brain’ checks the horse’s attention predictions drawn from the computer’s ‘brain’ from different angles.
(Text ・ Composition = Ibuki Masaya)
Surprisingly few cases of very famous horses dig at the top
AI Master M (hereinafter referred to as M) Arima Kenin was held last week, and Euphoria, who outperformed the odds by 2.1 times (most popular), won the championship.
Ibuki Ai Escape was mentioned as a hot horse in this column last week. True, it will be decided firmly at the end of the year.
M Trifecta’s yield is only 7180 yen. He not only appreciated Euphoria, but also speculated that he might have become a hot horse because of the situation that “there was no attractive ambush,” but that it was actually a firm decision.
Ibuki If Ai Escape continues to list the horses likely to be the center of popularity, it should be seen as potentially a huge fit.
M How would you rate Euphoria’s earnings?
Ibuki It can be said that it is a complete victory over difference. I was chasing ninth in front of me, but I raised my stance from the third corner and was already fifth in the fourth corner. I took the lead in the middle of the straight line and pushed it all the way to the end without stopping.
M The competitors that took part in the competition are achievement horses like Deep Bond (2nd place) and Chrono Genesis (3rd place), and it was a victory that reminded me of high ability.
Ibuki Despite the fact that he took off early and strayed off the road, he was tied for first place in the 3-halon time classification. Halon III’s time at the end of the race was 36.7 seconds this time, and the Emperor (Autumn) prize in the previous race was 33.6 seconds.
M The mid-range front for Old Horses for 2022 is also likely to revolve around Euphoria.
Ibuki I think we’re thinking about where to use it, but I can’t imagine the scene where this horse misses the race until the first half of next year. However, the pressure on the Euphoria camp will be significant, and there is a possibility that growth stocks that will change the strength chart simultaneously will emerge in the future. I’m really looking forward to the second leg and the big stage after that.
M The main Chokyo race on Wednesday is Kyoto Kimbae, which is famous as a special prize at the start of the year. Last year, Cadence Call with odds of winning 43.3 times (12th most popular) won the tournament.
Ibuki It was a large wave settlement of 1,228,010 yen to Trifecta. However, the winning Cadence Call was originally a horse that had a solid track record of finishing second in the 2019 NHK Mile Cup. The difference between the last two races and the winning horse was small, so I think it was an understatement. After that, Nakayama Kenin went on to finish second and the Mylars C1 place in good performance, and when I think about it later, it was a win.
M It’s a handicap race, so it’s best thought of as a race that involves ups and downs.
Ibuki …… hm. Honestly, there aren’t many very popular shots.
M The horses that won 7th place or less are the number that got 3rd place 9 times, and the average for 3rd place is 8.6%. Like I said, it’s a sore point whether or not you should aim hard at a big hole.
Ibuki If you take a closer look, the horses with eighth or least popularity in wins are from 2012 onwards.[1-1-4-89]It was (3rd place with 6.3%). You don’t have to worry about lowering the attractive ambush level, but you shouldn’t try to hate the horses of the big folk groups.
M At the time of the special recording, Zadar was nominated by iEscape in Kyoto Kimbae.
Ibuki Oh, you just mentioned the horses that go around the “best popular group”.
M Fuji Stakes in the previous race was only seventh, but the difference with the winning horse was just 0.6sec. We have a track record of winning an Epsom C award last year, and it’s unlikely to be very popular.
Ibuki However, given the other horses slated to run, it shouldn’t be as popular as the Center of Popularity. Based on the evaluation of the Ai Escape, I would like to estimate the probability of a good run from the race mile.
M Right now, how should previous race performance be evaluated? It’s a fine line that’s hard to describe as a good run or an average run…
Ibuki you are right. Over the past 10 years, horses that finished second or less in the previous race and had a time difference of 0.5 seconds or more from first have been struggling.
M Strictly speaking, Zadar does not meet this requirement.
Ibuki However, the previous Fuji Stakes were a GII race, and the member composition was reasonable as well. It’s hard to think of this as a mediocre run. As a personal impression, I feel it is a good idea to overlook it.
M What about achievements? Although I had no experience breaking into the upper echelons of the GI, I’m a top-ranking winner, and I’m doing really well in the GII as well.
Ibuki It seems good to appreciate this point. Twenty-three of the thirty third-place horses in the past ten years are ninth-placed horses in “JRA and GI/GII races since the previous year”.
M That’s it. In relation to this trend, Fuji Stakes performance is the passing score.
Ibuki In 2021, not only the winning Cadence Call, but also Entscheiden, who flipped the low-ranking with 93.6 times odds of winning (14th most popular) and took third place, out of that condition. Conversely, horses that did not use high-end racing in 2021 should be seen as overconfident.
M Are there other factors that could be important points?
Ibuki Only in recent years are horses 4 years of age and older struggling.
M Aside from the older horses, I am concerned that the youngest horse of 4 years did not make it to the top.
Ibuki Incidentally, the 4 year old horses who did not finish sixth in the NHK Mile Cup are from 2018 onwards.[0-0-0-13]It was (3rd place with an average of 0.0%). Shouldn’t we mainly focus on 5-6 year old horses this year as well?
M Zadar is 6 years old. This is also one of the highlighting materials.
Ibuki To tell the truth, when I saw the assumption, I was thinking of giving it a high rating. There aren’t many horses that have cleared the conditions identified this time around, so there seems to be a lot of opportunity. I will determine the final position after confirming the odds, but it may be chosen as a contender.
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