The last TV debate ended after Tuesday evening. After party leaders have gone to nearly every conceivable program to tell their story, it is up to the voter. Formation begins immediately on Thursday. What can we actually say about this on a campaign basis?
Remarkably, this campaign was all about forming a coalition after the elections. Some party leaders liked to allow themselves to peruse the papers; In GroenLinks, the preference (SP, PvdA, and D66) is even present on the election poster. Others were more cautious.
One thing we know for sure: the Freedom and Justice Party and the Forum for Democracy are rejected by the coalition because these parties are excluded by almost everyone. In addition, at least five parties are required to obtain a majority in the Senate. This is not possible without VVD, CDA, GroenLinks, D66, PvdA, SP, or ChristenUnie.
There also appears to be a third law: It appears that the VVD is supposed to win this election. This is hardly surprising given the polling trends of the past four years. So it’s likely Mark Rutte will head the next government again, so it’s interesting to see what he and his party want.
Rutte wanted in any case with CDA
The VVD leader prefers not to express a preference, except that he is the first to call a CDA when he becomes the eldest. This desire is mutual. A safe choice for center-right parties.
The gaze should quickly shift to the left. Not for D66 – this party feels comfortable in coalition and turns out to be a reliable partner for VVD and CDA – but for the three left-wing opposition parties SP, GroenLinks and PvdA.
Then it gets a little bit confusing. PvdA and GroenLinks signed an agreement early on: They won’t rule without each other. PvdA is still licking the wounds of its participation in Rutte II. Never again as the only left party in the coalition, they said to the Social Democrats.
GroenLinks leader Jesse Klaver’s wish goes further. He wanted to form a block with SP, PvdA and D66, but that plan almost immediately failed after it was proposed.
Geert Wilders (PVV), Jesse Claver (GroenLinks), Sigrid Cage (D66) and Lillian Marijnesen (SP).
Geert Wilders (PVV), Jesse Claver (GroenLinks), Sigrid Cage (D66) and Lillian Marijnesen (SP).
Photo: ANP
GroenLinks has been ruling for years in 2021
GroenLinks has anticipated government involvement for years. Claver is never secretive about it. Several agreements had to be concluded with the Cabinet to confirm this desire.
Claver had a problem: the VVD and CDA still blamed him heavily for the failed coalition attempt in 2017. Then the immigration turned out to be a very big obstacle. Ultimately, an alliance with ChristenUnie is sealed.
Additionally, Rutte never misses an opportunity to warn about GroenLinks’ climate plans. According to the VVD member, this party “outperforms” in that area – a drawback the D66 had, too. Incidentally, the VVD itself does not meet the climate targets.
ChristenUnie appears to be playing a smaller role in the formation. The extension expired with D66 on sensitive files such as the reversal period for miscarriage and full life after four years of rule.
Sweet Flirt with Marijnison
In addition to rebelling against GroenLinks, Rutte engages in a magical attack against Lilian Marijnissen’s SP. It all started a year ago, when a VVD member said that the Netherlands is “deeply socialist at its core”.
Marijnissen, in her role in the campaign, has often hinted that the SP is ready for government involvement. Even being a minister was a joke: Renske Leijten about public health.
Marijnissen knows her supporters are finding it difficult to judge with VVD. Her predecessor, Emil Romer, had already disqualified the Liberals in the previous election six months before the vote took place.
So Roth’s party is “at the bottom of the list” in Marijnesen, but the leader of the Socialist party asserts: The VVD now also wants to work on promoting sponsorship, strong government, and a higher minimum wage.
These will be the first problems in negotiations later on. In this way, GroenLinks is not an obvious alliance partner at all; He may be asked to add more water to the wine.
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