The least that can be said is that the 2021 formation was chaotic, and therefore took a historically long time. Four years ago, the formation also took a very long time. This is partly due to the breakdown of negotiations between the VVD, CDA, D66 and GroenLinks on the issue of immigration.
The informant appointed upon completion of the excavation must lead these negotiations. Only when the parties agree on a coalition agreement will a coordinator be appointed. This person’s task is to form the Cabinet.
Before that happens, spring may have arrived again. Perhaps only then will we know who will succeed Mark Rutte as Prime Minister.
Therefore, the question in the coming weeks will be which coalition is the most feasible. If it were up to FPÖ leader Geert Wilders, it would be a combination of FPÖ, FPÖ, NSC and BPP. He wrote this on Thursday based on a poll conducted by X.
If you just look at the number of seats, this seems to be the most straightforward coalition. In the House of Representatives, these parties together enjoy a large majority of 88 seats. They are six seats short in the Senate, but could get support from parties such as JA21, CDA and SGP.
But more options are possible. If the VVD or the NSC decide not to enter into a coalition with the Party for Freedom (the two parties have not yet clarified this), smaller parties will have to be considered.
Nor is minority government excluded by definition. However, the formation of such a government does not appear to be happening quickly. This is Umtsigt’s desire, but both Wilders and Yesselgoose indicated in the election campaign that this format was not their preference.
In any case, it seems almost certain that GL-PvdA will be in opposition, just like D66. Both parties exclude the Freedom Party. Therefore, forming a coalition with these parties will not appear in the picture unless Wilders fails to solve the formation puzzle.
