The invasion of the Kursk region by Ukrainian forces is a major offensive and could lead to a shift, says BNR foreign commentator Bernard Hamelburg. Russia has been caught by surprise, but don’t let that happen. “A lot of material has been blown to bits.”
Russians are completely shocked by the major Ukrainian attack, and “furious Putin will not let it go”
It is a major offensive, says BNR foreign commentator Bernard Hammelburg about the Ukrainian invasion of Russia’s Kursk region. At the same time, he points out that the 30 square kilometers that Ukraine has captured are nothing compared to the hundreds of thousands of square kilometers occupied by Russia.
However, Hammelburg calls this “literally and figuratively (…) a breakthrough.” An attack of this magnitude on Russian territory is a slap in the face to Putin. According to Hammelburg, the Russians could never have imagined an attack at this location. “It is poorly secured, there are few soldiers, and there is little defense.”
“Putin is angry and shocked”
caught off guard
Hammelburg wonders how long the Ukrainians can keep up the attack, since Russia will hit back hard sooner or later. But for now: “The Russians were completely taken by surprise. You can see it in everything. A lot of material was cut to pieces back and forth. Soldiers were killed.”
The Russians won't leave it at that, Hammelburg says, and he expects the Russians to bring in reinforcements. “They'll get there and then this party may or may not be over.”
gas pipeline
Kursk is an important area, as the only pipeline that still carries gas from Russia to the West passes through. Although this pipeline is still far from the front, Hammelburg does not consider it harmless for the Russians.
Ukraine is having a hard time on the southern front. However, this should not be dismissed as harassment, a joke or a diversionary maneuver. According to Hammelburg, these types of attacks have often led to a coup in the history of warfare. Zelensky’s approach, he believes, is that this could force the Russians to the negotiating table.
Second front Belarus?
Meanwhile, the Belarusian army has massed tanks near the border with Ukraine. Belarusian President Lukashenko is a loyal follower of Putin. Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine largely took place from Belarusian territory.
According to Hammelburg, the soup is not eaten that hot. “Lukashenko tends to be very quick to speak loudly and threaten hell and damnation.” However, he can only do so much, Hammelburg says. And while it remains a concern for Kiev, it could be a second front.
“That makes it more exciting,” Hammelberg says, though he doubts that Belarus will attack Ukraine. Now we have to wait for the Russian response, which will take some time. Ultimately, the Russians have to move their forces. Hammelberg points out that Russia has large numbers of North Korean and Iranian drones. “That could be the deciding factor in this battle for Kursk.”
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