The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday left its global growth forecasts unchanged for this year, as the “remarkable strength” of the US economy offset weaker forecasts for China and the euro zone. Below is an overview of estimates by country and region and the change compared to previous IMF forecasts.
October 2023 estimates versus previous estimates
October July April January vs. July vs. April vs. January
World 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.9 0.0 0.2 0.1
United 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.4 0.3 0.5 0.7
States
Euro area 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 -0.2 -0.1 0.0
Germany -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6
France 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.3
Italy 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.1
Spain 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.1 0.0 1.0 1.4
Japan 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.8 0.6 0.7 0.2
United 0.5 0.4 -0.3 -0.6 0.1 0.8 1.1
kingdom
Canada 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2
Emerging countries 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Markets
China 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
India 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.1 0.2 0.4 0.2
Russia 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.7 1.5 1.9
Brazil 3.1 2.1 0.9 1.2 1.0 2.2 1.9
Mexico 3.2 2.6 1.8 1.7 0.6 1.4 1.5
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia 0.8 1.9 3.1 2.6 -1.1 -2.3 -1.8
Arabian island
Nigeria 2.9 3.2 3.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3
South 0.9 0.3 0.1 1.2 0.6 0.8 -0.3
Africa
October 2024 estimates versus previous estimates
October July April January vs. July vs. April vs. January
World 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
United 1.5 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.5
States
Euro area 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.6 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4
Germany 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.5
France 1.3 1.3 1.6 0.0 0.0 -0.3
Italy 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2
Spain 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.7
Japan 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.1
United 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3
kingdom
Canada 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.1
Emerging 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2
Markets
China 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3
India 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.8 0.0 0.0 -0.5
Russia 1.1 1.3 1.3 2.1 -0.2 -0.2 -1.0
Brazil 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Mexico 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia 4.0 2.8 3.1 3.4 1.2 0.9 0.6
Arabian island
Nigeria 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 0.1 0.1 0.2
South 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.5
Africa
comments:
The numbers in the annual estimate columns are annual percentage changes in GDP.
The numbers in the change columns are the net difference in percentage points between the October forecast and the previous forecast.
