China’s planned live-fire military exercises near Taiwan are expected to cause significant disruption to commercial aviation across East Asia, with Taiwanese authorities warning that hundreds of flights and up to 100,000 passengers could be affected during a single day of operations.
The drills are scheduled to begin at 8:00 a.m. local time on December 30 and may last as long as 10 hours. Aviation officials say the exercises will impact airspace around Taiwan that is among the most congested in the world, intensifying pressure on airlines, airports and air traffic control systems throughout the region.
Large-Scale Airspace Restrictions
Mainland China has designated seven “dangerous areas” surrounding Taiwan for the military exercises, covering most of the standard air routes used by commercial aircraft. These restricted zones fall within the Taipei Flight Information Region (FIR), which manages air traffic over Taiwan and much of the Taiwan Strait.
Because of the Taipei FIR’s strategic location, the restrictions are expected to affect not only flights arriving in or departing from Taiwan, but also a large number of overflights transiting between Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia and other global destinations.
Taiwan’s Civil Aviation Administration (CAA) said that only three of the 18 published flight paths in the region will remain unaffected during the exercise period. Those routes include key international corridors toward Japan and Northeast Asia, as well as the heavily used M750 route, a major artery for regional air traffic.
Aviation officials criticized the short notice provided for the drills, noting that the announcement came roughly 24 hours in advance. They said the limited warning departs from established international aviation practices and complicates coordination among airlines, air traffic controllers and neighboring flight information regions.
Airlines Brace for Operational Strain
The anticipated airspace closures are expected to place heavy operational strain on Taiwan-based airlines, including EVA Air (BR), China Airlines (CI), and Starlux (JX). All three carriers operate extensive regional and long-haul networks from Taipei Taoyuan International Airport (TPE), which serves as a major hub for trans-Pacific and intra-Asia travel.
Authorities estimate that around 857 flights could be affected during the exercise window. This figure includes nearly 300 international departures, more than 260 international arrivals, and close to 300 overflights passing through Taipei-controlled airspace.
Airlines have indicated they will attempt to operate as many flights as possible, but have warned passengers to monitor flight status closely. Operational decisions may change rapidly depending on how the drills evolve and how airspace restrictions are enforced.
Airport operators and carriers are also preparing contingency plans, including rerouting aircraft along longer flight paths. Such measures are expected to increase flight times and fuel consumption, potentially raising costs for airlines and creating knock-on delays across regional networks.
Passenger Impact and Network Effects
Based on average aircraft load factors, Taiwanese officials estimate that up to 100,000 passengers could face delays, cancellations or schedule changes as a result of the drills. The disruption is likely to extend beyond Taiwan, affecting connecting flights and airline schedules throughout East Asia.
Industry observers note that even limited disruptions in the Taipei FIR can have outsized effects due to the density of traffic in the region. Delays on transiting flights can cascade across airline networks, impacting crew rotations, aircraft availability and on-time performance at airports far from Taiwan.
Broader Regional Aviation Risks
The exercises, known as Justice Mission 2025, involve multiple branches of the People’s Liberation Army and are designed to simulate a blockade scenario around Taiwan. Aviation experts say such drills raise safety and coordination challenges for civil aviation, even when commercial flights are routed clear of restricted areas.
Taiwan’s geopolitical status further complicates the situation. While the island operates as a self-governing democracy, its limited international recognition restricts its participation in global aviation decision-making bodies, despite its central role in regional air traffic flows.
Analysts warn that repeated large-scale military activities in the region could undermine confidence in air route stability. Over time, sustained disruptions could influence airline scheduling decisions and reshape regional connectivity patterns in East Asia.
Bottom Line
China’s live-fire exercises around Taiwan are expected to disrupt hundreds of flights and affect up to 100,000 passengers within a single day. With most routes in the Taipei Flight Information Region impacted, airlines face operational challenges despite efforts to maintain service. The episode underscores how geopolitical tensions continue to pose direct risks to civil aviation in one of the world’s busiest airspaces.
