Calculating Different Scenarios – Maurice de Hond

Read the full article: Calculating the different scenarios

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What are the benefits and risks by age group?

In our August 1 article, a model was presented to calculate for each age group the risks that would be in the second half of 2022 if people had been vaccinated against Covid-19 or had not been vaccinated (again). The example calculation in this article is based on two values: the vaccine provides 100% protection and the excess mortality is entirely due to the vaccine.

This results in two numbers:

• How many people will die thanks to vaccination?
• How many people will die from vaccination?

On virusvaria.nl, Anton Théunissen, in collaboration with the authors of the original article, calculated this model with different values ​​of vaccine protection and the extent of the vaccine’s increased mortality. In this way, it is possible to provide a good idea of ​​the effects of these assumptions on the figures for different age groups.

I recommend that you read this article. Especially to see how different scenarios work for your age group. (Taking into account what was written on August 1 in the model explanation). On the basis of numbers and assumptions, this model was developed.

I also draw your attention to the article on this site which deals with the important difference between the absolute and the relative effect of vaccination.

Here are the results of six scenarios. In both scenarios, the percentage of unexplained deaths that (possibly) due to vaccination are shown in red and putative VE (vaccine efficacy) in blue. The last line shows an increased chance of dying from vaccination compared to a decreased chance of dying from Omikron.

We also enable you to calculate different scenarios on your own. If you download the Excel file below, you can make this table and graph with your own input.

Download this Excel sheet: VE Calculation Scenario and Mortality Increase v1.0